HEATING & COOLING

Heat Pump vs Furnace Efficiency

Compare heat pump efficiency (HSPF) with furnace efficiency (AFUE) to find the most cost-effective way to heat your home.

2 min read Updated Aug 19, 2026 DataWisdom
AFUE <100%
COP >300%
Generating vs. Moving Heat
Understand Heating Efficiency

In this guide

  • How furnaces generate heat
  • How heat pumps move heat
  • Understand AFUE and HSPF ratings
  • Calculate heating operating costs
  • Evaluate cold climate performance

Furnaces generate heat by burning fuel, reaching a maximum theoretical efficiency of slightly under 100%. Heat pumps do not generate heat; they use electricity to move existing heat from the outside air into your home, allowing them to reach efficiencies of 300% or more.

How furnaces work (AFUE)

A furnace creates heat by combusting a fuel, usually natural gas, propane, or heating oil. The efficiency of a furnace is measured by its AFUE (Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency) rating. This is a simple percentage.

An older furnace might have an AFUE of 80%, meaning 80% of the fuel is turned into usable heat for your home, while 20% is lost as exhaust gases out the chimney. The absolute maximum efficiency a furnace can theoretically achieve is roughly 98%. It is physically impossible for a combustion furnace to exceed 100% efficiency because it cannot output more heat energy than was contained in the fuel it burned.

How heat pumps work (HSPF)

Heat pumps use electricity to run a compressor and circulate refrigerant. Instead of burning fuel to create heat, they act like an air conditioner in reverse—absorbing trace amounts of heat from the cold outdoor air and compressing it to make it hot enough to warm your home.

Because moving heat takes significantly less energy than generating it, heat pumps operate at extraordinary efficiencies, often delivering 3 units of heat energy for every 1 unit of electrical energy consumed. This is known as a Coefficient of Performance (COP) of 3.0, or 300% efficiency.

Why heat pumps exceed 100% efficiency

It sounds like magic, but it's just thermodynamics. By utilizing the free heat stored in the outdoor air (which was put there by the sun), a heat pump only pays the "delivery fee" (the electricity required to run the compressor) rather than paying for the heat itself.

Heating Operating Cost
(Heating Load ÷ Efficiency) × Fuel Price

Definitions

  • Heating Load: The total heat your home needs, measured in BTUs.
  • Efficiency: AFUE for furnaces, COP or HSPF for heat pumps.

Example

Even though electricity costs more per unit than natural gas, a heat pump's 300% efficiency often makes it cheaper to run than a 90% efficient gas furnace.

Worked cost comparison

Let's compare delivering 1 million BTUs of heat using a 90% efficient natural gas furnace versus a heat pump with a COP of 3.0. Assume natural gas costs $1.50 per therm (1 therm = 100,000 BTUs) and electricity costs $0.14 per kWh (1 kWh = 3,412 BTUs).

Worked Example
Scenario: Delivering 1,000,000 BTUs using Gas ($1.50/therm) vs. Heat Pump ($0.14/kWh).
Illustrative Heating Cost Comparison (1 Million BTUs)
Metric Gas Furnace (90%) Heat Pump (3.0 COP)
Input Energy Required 1,111,111 BTUs 333,333 BTUs
Billed Units 11.1 Therms 97.7 kWh
Total Cost $16.65 $13.68
Takeaway: In this specific rate scenario, the heat pump is roughly 18% cheaper to operate than the gas furnace due to its massive efficiency advantage.
Note: The winner of this calculation is entirely dependent on your local utility rates. In areas with very cheap gas and very expensive electricity, the furnace will be cheaper to run.

Cold climate considerations

As the outdoor temperature drops, there is less heat available in the air for the heat pump to extract. Below freezing, a heat pump has to work much harder, and its COP drops from 3.0 down to perhaps 1.5 or 2.0. In extreme cold (below -10°F), some older heat pumps must rely on expensive electric resistance backup heating.

However, modern "Cold Climate" heat pumps are specifically engineered with advanced variable-speed compressors that maintain high efficiencies even at sub-zero temperatures.

Limitations

Comparing natural gas (sold in Therms or CCF) to electricity (sold in kWh) requires complex unit conversions. Always use a dedicated calculator that handles BTU conversions automatically to ensure an accurate comparison based on your specific local rates.

For more information on our calculations, please read our Methodology and Disclaimer.

HEATING & COOLING QUESTIONS

Frequently Asked Questions

Find answers about this topic, calculated estimates, and related concepts.

Read our calculation methodology →

WHAT YOU WILL FIND HERE

  • Direct explanations
  • Short illustrative calculations
  • Links to relevant calculators and guides
Are heat pumps really over 100% efficient?
Yes. Because heat pumps move existing heat from the outside air rather than generating new heat, they can deliver up to 300% more heat energy into your home than the electrical energy they consume.
Do heat pumps work in freezing weather?
Modern cold-climate heat pumps are designed to extract heat even when outdoor temperatures drop below zero Fahrenheit. However, their efficiency does drop as it gets colder.
What is AFUE?
AFUE (Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency) measures how efficiently a gas or oil furnace converts fuel into heat. A 90% AFUE furnace converts 90% of its fuel to heat and loses 10% up the exhaust chimney.
What is HSPF?
HSPF (Heating Seasonal Performance Factor) measures the efficiency of a heat pump over the entire winter season. A higher HSPF means a more efficient heat pump.
Looking for a question that is not covered here? Contact DataWisdom.
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Compare Your Heating Costs

Use our calculator to compare the operating cost of a gas furnace versus an electric heat pump based on your local utility rates.